Aluminium
P1020A · A7 / A7E · billet · wire rod · alloyWhere the market is now
The global aluminium market is running in deficit — consumption is ahead of what smelters are putting out, and the gap is being met by drawing down stock rather than by new production. That is not a sustainable balance, and it is showing up first in physical premiums rather than in the exchange price.
This is the part buyers most often miss. The LME price can look calm while the cost of actually getting metal delivered to your port climbs, because scarcity is expressed through the regional premium and through lead times, not through the exchange.
What is driving it
- Constrained smelter output. Energy costs and power availability continue to cap production, and restarting idled capacity is slow and expensive.
- No meaningful new supply. New smelting capacity takes years to build and there is little arriving in the near term.
- Origin restrictions. Sanctions and exchange delivery rules have narrowed the pool of metal that many buyers are able or willing to take, which tightens the effective supply well beyond the headline figures.
- Stock drawdown. Meeting demand from inventory works until the inventory runs low. It is a buffer, not a source.
Our six-month view
We expect the position to deteriorate rather than correct. On our reading, buyers who are not contracted by then will be competing for spot units in a market with very little slack, and the premium is where that will be felt first and hardest.
Put plainly: we think aluminium gets materially harder to secure over the next six months, and the buyers who fare best will be those who fixed volume and terms early rather than those who waited for a better entry price.
What this means if you are buying
Secure volume before securing the last dollar of price. In a deficit the binding constraint is allocation, not the differential — a term contract at a fair premium is worth more than a sharper spot number you cannot actually get filled. Be realistic about origin: narrowing your acceptable brands narrows your supply in a market that has little to spare.
Copper
Grade A cathode · wire rod · billetWhere the market is now
Copper is comparatively stable. Supply and demand are broadly in balance, premiums are behaving in an orderly way, and buyers are generally getting the units they ask for on reasonable lead times. Compared with aluminium, it is a calm market today.
What is driving it
- Demand growth from electrification. Grid investment, renewables and electric vehicles all consume copper, and that demand is structural rather than cyclical.
- Mine supply is the constraint. New copper mines take a decade and considerable capital to bring on, and grades at existing operations decline over time.
- Concentrate tightness feeding through. Pressure at the concentrate and smelting stage eventually reaches refined metal, but with a lag — which is why the current calm can be misleading.
Our six-month view
Broker research — including forecasts published by Macquarie — points to copper moving into a deficit on a similar path to aluminium within roughly six months. Our own read of producer conversations is consistent with that.
If that forecast proves right, copper buyers have something aluminium buyers no longer have: time. The window to contract on today's orderly terms is open now and may not stay open.
What this means if you are buying
Use the calm. This is the market in which to negotiate term cover on sensible terms, while premiums are still behaving and producers still have allocation to place. Waiting costs nothing if the forecasts are wrong, and costs a great deal if they are right — which is an asymmetry worth acting on.
Refined fuels & crude
EN590 10 ppm · gasoil 500 ppm · Jet A-1 · crudeWhere the market is now
Fuel supply chains are disrupted. Instability in the Middle East is affecting shipping routes, freight rates and insurance, and the practical consequence is that where a cargo comes from and how it gets to you now matters as much as the price on the day.
Product is available. What has become unreliable is the assumption that a cargo will route the way it always has, arrive when scheduled, and cost what the benchmark implies.
What is driving it
- Shipping route risk. Vessels rerouting away from affected waters add sea time and cost, and that lands in the delivered price rather than the benchmark.
- War-risk insurance. Premiums for affected routes move quickly and are a real component of a CIF number.
- Refinery and export flows redrawn. Barrels are moving to different buyers than they did a year ago, changing which origins are genuinely available to whom.
- Sanctions complexity. Establishing the true origin of a cargo now takes more work, and it is work that has to be done properly.
Our six-month view
We expect continued volatility rather than a clean resolution. Prices will move on geopolitical news as much as on fundamentals, and cargoes will keep being rerouted at short notice.
In this environment the risk that hurts a buyer is not usually price. It is a cargo that does not arrive, or that arrives with documentation that will not stand scrutiny.
What this means if you are buying
Pay attention to origin, routing and inspection, not just the differential. Insist on a named origin with a verifiable assay, agree the inspection regime before fixing, and treat an offer priced well below the market as a warning rather than an opportunity — in this market, that discount is usually paying for a problem you have not been told about yet.
About this outlook. The views above are those of M.E. Global Trading Pty. Ltd. as at September 2026. They are general commentary on market conditions, provided to explain the basis on which we quote. They are not financial product advice, investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any commodity or instrument, and they take no account of your objectives or circumstances.
Commodity markets are volatile and forecasts — ours and anyone else's — are frequently wrong. Where we refer to third-party research, that research belongs to its author and is summarised here for context only; you should refer to the original publication before relying on it. Nothing on this page is an offer to sell or a commitment to supply, and no price or availability indication is binding until set out in a written quotation.
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